About this title: Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do--and what to do about it.
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Binding: Paperback
Publisher: PENGUIN BOOKS LTD Country = UNITED KINGDOM
Date published: 2008
ISBN-13:9780141034591ISBN:0141034599
Description: BRAND NEW PAPERBACK. 400 pages. What have the invention of the wheel, pompeii, the wall street crash, harry potter and the inter*n*e*t* got in common? why are all forecasters con-artists? and, what can catherine the great's lovers tell us about probability? this book shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty. illustrations (Paperback) read more
Description: Good. Please note that deliveries to addresses in the UK and Europe will be in 4-14 business days. Other countries should refer to Alibris standard times. The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an ... read more
Description: New. PLEASE NOTE: All books are promptly shipped from our UK warehouse using Royal Mail or DHL. International Priority mail for non-UK deliveries. Delivery is typically 2-4 working days for UK delivery. Heavier or more expensive books are shipped with a TRACKING NUMBER. Professional and reliable bookseller (est.1987). read more
Edition: Annotated.
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Random House
Date published: 2007-04-17
ISBN-13:9781400063512ISBN:1400063515
Description: New in New jacket. New hardback book with publisher's inventory mark on bottom. We ship 6 days a week, generally within 24 hours; single CDs and DVDs upgraded to 1st class! read more
Edition: Annotated.
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Random House
Date published: 2007
ISBN-13:9781400063512ISBN:1400063515
Description: New. Items ship once payments have cleared. Media mail 5-8 days Priority 2-3 days and international orders may be subject to customs clearance procedures which can cause delays. Seasonal delays can occur in postal system. International Orders which cannot ship first class or in priority flat rate will be charged additional postage. All items ship within 24 hours of receiving payment. read more
Edition: Annotated.
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Random House Inc
Date published: 2007-04-17
ISBN-13:9781400063512ISBN:1400063515
Description: NEW. Hardcover. From an inventory that is 100% brand-new, 100% direct from the publishers' distribution channel. We carry NO pre-owned, NO remaindered. We pack in CARDBOARD to ensure the pristine quality is maintained. (Bubble-wrap alone is NOT sufficient to protect from USPS equipment. ) Guaranteed brand-NEW, protected with CARDBOARD, your satisfaction is guaranteed. BKLUVID: 9781400063512. read more
Edition: Annotated.
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: Random House
Date published: 2007
ISBN-13:9781400063512ISBN:1400063515
Description: New. 1400063515 Your Order will ship within 1 BUSINESS DAY of your purchase date. This is a Great Book at a Great Value. Our goal is to enusre that you are happy with your order. Some of our books may have publisher mark. read more
"Engaging and intelligently written, without being obscure. As someone who generally reads literature, I nevertheless found the subject matter fascinating and Taleb's style easy to follow. I couldn't stop thinking about it - or talking about it - for weeks after having read it."
"the books takes you on a very complex journey but at the end, brings you down to point one. One would say, why the hell did i went through the entire journey when I what I wanted to see could be verbally explained in one line...this book even though has some good things in parts but on the whole it portrays that all the theories of science, economics, business studies are rubbish and we should only focus on the so called greatest subject of philosophy."
"This was my first encounter with Nassim Taleb. The writing has a hint of condescension that would be more irritating if his points weren't so interesting. This guy is either great to have at dinner or an arrogant ass. Probably both on the same night.
The basic idea behind the book is that the observational methods that underpin science can't prove the non-existence of an object/event. To make matters worse, human cognition is driven by heuristics instead of perfect memorization of data, so we have a lot of trouble processing the probability or scale (the expected values) of highly unlikely events. We tend to think that things will continue on as they are only changing an amount that we feel comfortable imagining - we aren't capable of predicting the major shifts in history.
The definition of Black Swan events are that they are: completely unpredictable, huge in their effect (good or bad), and appear to be predictable in hindsight but really aren't.
A couple of examples of situations with unpredictable shifts in thinking: Early Europeans thought all swans were white because they'd only ever seen white swans. There was no way to prove the existence or non-existence of black swans until they saw their first example.
Turkey's think they have great lives. Every day for 1000 days a farmer feeds them and cleans their cage. The turkey's impression of its life is accurate for 1000 days, but on the 1001 day right before Thanksgiving, the farmer cuts off its head.
Taleb really goes after people in the financial world who pretend that they can provide models of prediction. He targets the Black-Scholes model of option pricing in particular because it pretends to provide an estimate of value, but is really missing so many parameters that it's useless except to other people who buy into the model. As long as b-schools teach that the model is sacrosanct, and traders come from b-schools, then the system is internally consistent. Unfortunately, options (and stocks) will eventually go through an event not covered by the model and everyone who depends on Black-Scholes will have a surprisingly positive/negative event.
My main takeaway: - invest in items that have positive black-swan ability with limited downsides. For example: startups can make disproportional profits, with losses limited to the initial investment. Movies and books behave similarly (some winners enjoy massive upside, all players can limit their downside).
I'm sure I've forgotten tons of info in this book since I read it a year ago, though."
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