This is a study of the applicability of prospect theory to military decision making. Prospect theory posits that the decision maker's reference point determines the domain in which he makes a decision. If the domain is one of losses, the decision maker will tend to be risk seeking, if gains, then he will be risk averse. The author proposes that if prospect theory's propositions are correct, then it may be possible for the decision maker, by assessing his own domain, to make better informed decisions. One implication of this ...
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This is a study of the applicability of prospect theory to military decision making. Prospect theory posits that the decision maker's reference point determines the domain in which he makes a decision. If the domain is one of losses, the decision maker will tend to be risk seeking, if gains, then he will be risk averse. The author proposes that if prospect theory's propositions are correct, then it may be possible for the decision maker, by assessing his own domain, to make better informed decisions. One implication of this study is that if he can do the same for a subordinate or for an enemy, he may be better able to predict their responses in a given situation. The project's goal is to develop a framework for assessing risk propensity. It does this by first describing the military decision making process and concluding that it is a rational decision making process. Next, the paper describes prospect theory and matches the key aspects of the theory with the military decision making process. Next, it proposes a framework for assessing risk propensity. The theory is tested in a case study of General Dwight D. Eisenhower's 1944 decision to launch Operation Market Garden. This decision is analyzed in terms of Graham Allison's three models for decision making and prospect theory to determine which model or theory seems to provide the best explanations for Eisenhower's decision. The last chapter applies the risk propensity framework to the case study to test if it can predict risk propensity and its impact an decision making. The author concludes that prospect theory's propositions are valid and that this theory provides a prescriptive way to consider decision making under risk. Although prospect theory does not predict the choice a decision maker will select, it should reveal his bias toward a risky or over cautious solution. This tendency may limit the types of alternatives developed or considered. The framework developed for determining risk propensity provides insi This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
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Add this copy of A Framework for Military Decision Making Under Risks to cart. $22.70, new condition, Sold by Ingram Customer Returns Center rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from NV, USA, published 2025 by Hutson Street Press.
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Fine. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 84 p. In Stock. 100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition, allow 4-14 business days for standard shipping. To Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. protectorate, P.O. box, and APO/FPO addresses allow 4-28 business days for Standard shipping. No expedited shipping. All orders placed with expedited shipping will be cancelled. Over 3, 000, 000 happy customers.
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New. Trade paperback (US). Glued binding. 84 p. In Stock. 100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition, allow 4-14 business days for standard shipping. To Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. protectorate, P.O. box, and APO/FPO addresses allow 4-28 business days for Standard shipping. No expedited shipping. All orders placed with expedited shipping will be cancelled. Over 3, 000, 000 happy customers.
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Fine. Sewn binding. Cloth over boards. 84 p. In Stock. 100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition, allow 4-14 business days for standard shipping. To Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. protectorate, P.O. box, and APO/FPO addresses allow 4-28 business days for Standard shipping. No expedited shipping. All orders placed with expedited shipping will be cancelled. Over 3, 000, 000 happy customers.
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New. Sewn binding. Cloth over boards. 84 p. In Stock. 100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition, allow 4-14 business days for standard shipping. To Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. protectorate, P.O. box, and APO/FPO addresses allow 4-28 business days for Standard shipping. No expedited shipping. All orders placed with expedited shipping will be cancelled. Over 3, 000, 000 happy customers.
